Narodny Opros (National Poll) is an independent project for researching public opinion in Belarus
Dear friends!
We've started with an independent, scientifically rigorous and completely innovative Public Survey to get pre-election ratings in Belarus president elections 2020. We obtained the only independent candidate ratings which may be considered reliable.
Now we continue to conduct surveys to know the public opinion in after-elections Belarus. It is important that as many different people as possible participate in the polls. They should represent different regions, ages and spheres of activity, have different senses of worth. Therefore join our bot in Viber and invite acquaintances!
Dynamics of protests
Covid-19
Мировые лидеры
Украина
Research methodology
How we carry out surveys
The surveys are carried out via registration in Viber chatbot. According to the latest data, Viber is the most popular messenger in Belarus, that is why we chose it for our surveys.The sample of respondents is formed by sending out a questionnaire to one third of our randomly selected audience. The response rate is 30-45%. Each subscriber of the chatbot receives a link to the questionnaire in Google Forms with a unique ID. Depending on a survey, some questions could be asked directly in the chat bot.
The surveys are completely anonymous, no personal data, including the phone number, are collected.
How we create questionnaires
The questionnaire for monitoring weekly surveys usually consists of regular questions that we ask to monitor changes, and of the most relevant questions (different every time).The questionnaire for ad hoc surveys consists of the questions dedicated to one topic under research (COVID-19, geopolitics).
Throughout the surveying process, the quality of questionnaires is controlled by experts in the relevant field (doctors, political analysts, sociologists, etc.).
How we process the data
We do not process the following replies:- of citizens of the countries other than Belarus,
- of people who do not live in Belarus,
- of citizens younger than 18,
- with incorrect or duplicate IDs (only the latest questionnaire received is accounted for)
For ad hoc surveys, we usually apply Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) method to address sampling bias and extrapolate the results to the whole population of the country.
Who are our respondents?
The respondents have been gathered mostly in popular social media and different messenger groups, via ads in YouTube and Instagram to be able to get people from different social and demographical groups.The results of Pre-election poll!
Whereas Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s rating is between 13% and 18%.
What does this mean
As we can see, our results differ greatly from the official numbers published by CEC (let us recall that results: 80% for A.Lukashenko and 10% for S.Tsikhanouskaya). This shows that the elections had been rigged and, with a 99.9% probability that A.Lukashenka did not win in the first round.
Our principles
About us
Questions and answers
If you are logged in from your mobile device, make sure you have Viber installed.
If you logged in from your computer, either install Viber on your computer or use your mobile phone to find the Viber community "Narodny Opros" and join it.
We are a group of volunteers working alongside with sociologists and mathematicians and not affiliated with any political entity.
We aim for representativeness and statistical validity of the results, so we use methods recognized by the sociological community. We have already published the preprint of our work on arxiv.org and gave access to our source code and raw data so our work could be reviewed and validated by experts in sociology and mathematics.
It is a sample of collected data that has the same characteristics as the population characteristics of the entire country.
No, we do not have access to your personal information, including your phone number, we do not store your name.
According to statistics Viber is the most popular messenger in Belarus and is used by people of different political views. Besides, we needed to guarantee the uniqueness of the vote so we couldn't use more than one messenger since we are not collecting any personal information.